The French Presidential and Legislative Elections of 2002 by John Gaffney

Author:John Gaffney [Gaffney, John]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Political Science, Political Process, Campaigns & Elections, Comparative Politics
ISBN: 9780754634362
Google: UuWIAAAAMAAJ
Goodreads: 5087382
Publisher: Ashgate
Published: 2004-01-15T09:21:31+00:00

Conclusion: The Electoral Prospects for French Socialism

Hollande's own assessment of the reasons for defeat took the form of a rebuke of both Emmanuelli and Montebourg, 'we did not lose because we were crushed by the cohabitation regime, nor because we surrendered to neo-liberal globalisation'. Rather, Hollande blamed the division of the left, the alienation of the couches populaires and (in perhaps Hollande's clearest critique of Jospin's campaign) above all the 'erosion of our identity'. Hollande called for the transition 'from post-mortem [of defeat] to innovation'. Instrumental in this transition, he argued, was a 'profound renovation' of the PS. Along with ideological evolution, with 'Left reformism' representing a distinct break from Jospin's 'Left Realism', Hollande promised early organisational change to make the party 'more representative, more militant, more mobilised, more connected to social actors, and more European'. These familiar calls for the 'éléphants' at the summit of the party to listen more closely to the base were given some substance by a membership questionnaire. Hollande promised 'profound and immediately applicable statutory reform' at the Dijon conference.44

However, as with earlier phases of organisational reform, this only proves possible and effective when the party is united behind a leader who enjoys both democratic legitimacy (through a decisive victory in membership election), and de facto authority and support within a relatively cohesive majority. These were both necessary conditions of the organisation reforms undertaken by Jospin in the mid-1990s.45 This is a result of the curious nature of political power and attendant legitimacy in presidentialised French party politics. Hollande's first hurdle was re-election as first secretary in May 2003. Few expected Hollande to repeat the 91 per cent support which the then dauphin of Jospin secured at Brest in 1997, but had Hollande's support to dip below 60 per cent, the resulting power vacuum would have proved crippling. This crisis was averted, but as long as the real question - of who would stand as the next Socialist Presidential candidate in 2007, remained unresolved, Hollande would find it very difficult to resolve the factional tensions, and to unite a relatively cohesive majority behind his plans for organisational reform of the party, let alone his strategic vision for the future of the French left. The re-proliferation of 'political clubs' on and around the French left in the wake of defeat, any of which could provide an ideational or organisational basis for a leadership challenge, was eloquent testimony to Hollande's relative lack of authority.46

Hollande needed to articulate a plausible strategic and ideological vision for the party over the following five years, and he characterised his strategic vision as 'rassemblement of the Left' through 'a real political confrontation' with the extreme Left.47 The programmatic tensions between the likes of Aubry and Fabius, however, may well prove impossible to reconcile within his new majority, and the Nouveau monde faction looks set to become a significant and critical constraint outside it. Thus internally, the question mark of the next presidential candidate remained unresolved, and this increased the intensity of factional

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